Operando reportagens

Comparação de reportagens de capa de importantes revistas americanas e o índice no momento da publicação (por Chris Kimble); particularmente, continuo a preferir os gráficos....

SP500 por Chris Kimble

DJ

E o OCO refugou.... teste na neckline com subida do índice; no momento teste de Fibo (50% de toda perna de baixa).

EPU0 e canal baixista

Usando fechamentos, segue em canal baixista.

Pullback na neckline?

Pullback na neckline? Pelo MFI, MACD e IFR.... não!

DJ - contagem sugerida

Cuidado com novas vendas....

Forte divergência no EPU0...

Falta uma 5

Possibilidades de Elliott para o DJ (por Paulo Caldas)

Uma abc de uma 2 ou abcde de uma 4:

95 de DJ por Chris Kimble

DJ e MFI/CCI

Auto-explicativo.

DJ e volume

Alerta ligado

DJ chegando em área de resistência; vejam o Fibo em 10359 e a MM55 nesta região; MM21 continua baixista...

... e no semanal, candle chegando à temível MME200...

DJ

Cuidado com a LTB e o MACD.

Análise do DecisionPoint

More Correction Ahead

by Carl Swenlin

January 29, 2010

Last week's breakdown led me to believe that a medium-term correction was just beginning. So far this week that opinion has been reinforced by market action. For example, as of last Friday, short-term indicators were very oversold, and a technical bounce was to be expected; however, the market instead has drifted lower, causing me to assume that the oversold condition is being cleared by a decelerated decline rather than a reaction rally. This is bearish behavior, but there is no technical reason to believe that it is announcing a new bear market, only that bullish behavior will be in abeyance while prices work through the correction.

The weekly-based chart of the S&P 500 shows that the PMO is very overbought and has crossed down through its 10-EMA. It could take a few months to clear this condition by bringing the PMO back to the zero line.

Our intermediate-term indicators are no longer overbought, and they are low enough to support another price bottom; however, I would be happier to see them bottoming in the -150 area.

Bottom Line: I would like to see this correction continue for a few months. Keep in mind that corrections in bull markets do not have to be straight down affairs, rather there can be extended movement to the side and slightly down that serves the purpose of getting internals set for another advance without causing too much price damage.

The most obvious immediate support is around 1030, followed by a series of previous lows going down to 980, which would be the worst case if this correction is to remain in the "mild-to-moderate" category. If prices eventually drop to the area of the support at 870, that would be severe enough to start questioning our bull market thesis.

In the meantime, if prices continue lower, our timing models will start switching from buy to neutral. This could begin as soon as next week.

DJ e a MME200

Como comentado há alguns meses neste blog, o índice americano começa a sentir a força da MME200; resta saber até que momento se produzirá esse recuo.

Indicadores para hoje

Análise do DecisionPoint

Finally A Breakdown

by Carl Swenlin

January 22, 2010

The S&P 500 has finally decisively broken down through the support formed by the rising trend line that marks the bottom of the ascending wedge formation. This was the technical expectation, but the market sure did fight it. The break has also carried the price index through the 20- and 50-EMAs. I have drawn a dashed line from the November low, parallel with the upper boundary of the wedge to suggest a possible bottom of a rising trend channel. This line is not drawn by strict technical rules, just a bit of speculation on my part.

The first obvious support is at about 1030, not a real problem; however, the next obvious support is at about 870. That would be great in terms of a substantial correction, and it would raise fear levels to the point where a good buying opportunity might appear.

The weekly-based chart of the S&P 500 shows that the PMO has topped at a very overbought level, hinting that we may be at an important top. On the positive side, the price index is holding above the long-term declining tops line.

In the short term the market is very oversold, as illustrated by the Participation Index chart below. This could represent an initiation thrust for a decline that will last a lot longer, or it could mark the end of the decline altogether. The latter does not seem likely, but it would be consistent with the market action we have observed in recent months.

Bottom Line: We have just witnessed the worst three-day decline since the March 2009 bottom. I think it is the beginning of a more substantial decline, but short-term indicators are so oversold that the next thing we will probably see is a bounce. The most important thing to watch in the medium term is for 20-EMAs to cross down through 50-EMAs. In most cases, this will change buy signals to neutral signals, except where the 50-EMA is below the 200-EMA at the time of the 20/50-EMA crossover. That would be a sell. In the event that the S&P 500 bounces high enough to exceed the January highs, I would have to assume that the presently anticipated correction has run its course.

EPH0 - análise

Analisando o índice futuro, temos uma idéia de como será o mercado a curto prazo; observem que o MFI no diário é baixista, bem como o CCI; ambos apontando para baixo, vindo de zona sobrecomprada; seus efeitos no índice já se fazem sentir...

... já a nível semanal, observamos uma clara indicação baixista entre o índice e o MFI; CCI no semanal permanece lateral e sobrecomprado; até então vínhamos em um mercado essencialmente bull, que por ora parece começar a querer ceder (pelo menos a curto prazo)...

... aqui se vê de forma mais clara a divergência baixista entre o MFI e o índice; o que pode explicar isso é o momento estritamente bull que vivemos; isso pode ser visto tb no gráfico diário, onde o MFI recuou e não trouxe o índice junto (entre novembro e dezembro/09); as desvantagens neste momento, e que sem dúvida vai se refletir por aqui, são: 1) os níveis de IFR agora são mais elevados que na lateralização anterior; 2) o índice brasileiro se encontra próximo ao TH; 3) o índice americano ronda a MME200, a qual ainda não se deu por vencida (falso rompimento);

... ainda sobre o MFI: no semanal ele está progressivamente aliviando, mas ainda tem potencial para maiores estragos, visto que o indicador no diário está "mandando" o índice recuar em concomitância; o recuo do MFI pode produzir uma queda das cotações o suficiente para produzir um momento de nova entrada para quem está esperando um bom momento para comprar; desta forma, com nova inflexão deste indicador para cima, teríamos a continuidade da tendência bull (mais a médio e longo prazos).

Análise do DecisionPoint

Negative Divergences Abound

by Carl Swenlin

January 15, 2010

While the S&P 500 had managed to squeeze slightly above the ascending wedge that has contained the index for several months, this week it dropped back below the support and it is currently challenging the bottom of the wedge. The wedge has not resolved decisively in either direction, and it is possible that there will be no clear resolution. By that I mean the wedge is so narrow that the price index could continue to drift higher, lower, or sideways to where it will have exited the wedge without a clear resolution. If so, we will ignore the wedge and look for something else to provide some clarity.

I am still of the opinion that we will see some kind of downside correction because of the abundance of negative divergences to be found on our indicator charts. The first is the gradually contracting volume seen on the chart below.

The next chart shows the three indicators of our OBV (On-Balance Volume) suite with divergences clearly marked.

Finally, we have the new highs and new lows chart. Again, you can see the negative divergence over the contraction of new highs; however, this chart gives us reason to believe that the internal problems may not be too serious. Note that there have been virtually no new lows for many months, and, without an expansion of new lows, all the negative divergences we are seeing probably have no long-term significance. For example, note that the contraction of new highs at the end of 2007 was accompanied by a considerable expansion of new lows that gave warning of much greater than normal weakness.

Bottom Line: The abundance of negative divergences keeps waving the caution flag for a correction; however, the complete lack of new lows indicates that we are only witnessing cyclical weakness during an ongoing bull market, not a major top.